Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Cement in Iran: New Insights for Sustainability of Civil Infrastructures

Document Type : Research Papers

Authors

1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran

2 Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/ceij.2021.304150.1684

Abstract

In this article, a Dynamic Material Flow Analysis (DMFA) model is presented that characterizes the stocks and flows of cement from 1963 to 2063 in Iran. Using cement consumption data for the period of 1963-2018 an attempt is made to provide reliable estimates of the present as well as future cement in-use stocks and discards (from 2019 to 2063) to relevant stakeholders such as the Ministry of Road and Urban Development, Department of Environment, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Based on a normal lifetime distribution, a flow dynamic model is developed for each cement end-use category including buildings, infrastructures and others. Each sub model is simulated with 9 scenarios made from combinations of 3 scenarios for future cement consumption growth rate and 3 scenarios for the mean lifetime of the structures. For the base scenario, the model-derived estimate of in-use cement stock and cumulative discard for the year 2063 is 2191 million metric tons (Mt) and 1856 Mt, respectively. Such a great discard should be considered in policy making for better life cycle management of cement in Iran. The main finding of the paper is that by increasing the mean lifetime of the structures (especially buildings), the amount of cumulative cement discard in 2063 can be drastically decreased (generally over 50%) and this decrease will not be affected considerably by the cement consumption growth rate in the future. So this can be a reliable strategy for the sustainable life cycle management of infrastructures in Iran.

Keywords


Ahmadi, R. and Karimi, A. (2015). "Statistical analysis of production, consumption and universal trade of the cement  industry of Iran in comparison with the world's main countries", Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies 26(1), 107-128, (in Persian).

Alihosseini A., Abbaszadeh A. and Bastani, D. (2009). "Necessity of revision in energy consumption and the ways to reduce energy consumption in cement industry", Environment, Science and Technology, 16(93), 75-83, (in Persian). 

Askarinejad, A. (2017). "Using different methods of nanofabrication as a new way to activate supplementary cementitious materials, A review", Civil Engineering Infrastructures Journal, 50(1), 1-19.

Bergsdal, H., Brattebø, H., Bohne, R.A. and Müller, D.B. (2007). "Dynamic material flow analysis for Norway's dwelling stock", Building Research and Information, 35(5), 557-570.

Cao, Z., Shen, L., Liu, L., Zhao, J., Zhong, S., Kong, H. and Sun, Y. (2017). "Estimating the in-use cement stock  in China: 1920–2013", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 122, 21-31.

Cao, Z., Shen, L., Zhong, S., Liu, L., Kong, H. and Sun, Y. (2018). "A probabilistic dynamic material flow analysis model for Chinese urban housing stock", Journal of Industrial Ecology, 22, 377-391.

Condeixa, K., Haddad, A. and Boer, D. (2017) "Material flow analysis of the residential building stock at the city of Rio de Janeiro", Journal of Cleaner Production, 149, 1249-1267.

Department of Environment (2017). "Islamic republic of Iran’s third national communication to United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC)", Iran National Climate Change Office, Available at: http://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ Third National communication IRAN.pdf.

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Edwards P. (2017). "The cement sector of Iran", Global Cement Magazine, Pro Global Media,  available at: https://www.globalcement.com/

magazine/articles/1022-the-cement-sector-of-iran.

Eghbali, S., Azizzadeh Araee, R. and Mofrad Boushehri, A. (2019). "Construction Waste Generation in the Iranian Building Industry", Civil Engineering Infrastructures Journal, 52(1), 1-10.

Heibati, F. and Farzin, A. (2005) "The estimation of cement demand in Iran based on time series models", Journal of Economics Research, 5(19), 181-210, (in Persian).

Horvath, A. (2004). "Construction materials and the environment", Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 29, 181-204.

Hu, M., van der Voet, E. and Huppes, G. (2010 b). "Dynamic material flow analysis for strategic construction and demolition waste management in Beijing", Journal of Industrial Ecology 14(3), 440-456.

Hu, M., Pauliuk, S., Wang, T., Huppes, G., van der Voet, E. and Müller, D.B. (2010a). "Iron and steel in Chinese residential buildings: A dynamic analysis", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 54(9), 591-600.

Huang, T., Feng S., Tanikawa, H., Fei, J. and Han, J. (2013). "Materials demand and environmental impact of   buildings construction and demolition in China based on dynamic material flow analysis", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 72, 91-101.

Huang, W., Huang, Y., Lin, S., Chen, Z., Gao, B. and Cui, S. (2018). "Changing urban cement metabolism under  rapid urbanization, A flow and stock perspective", Journal of Cleaner Production, 173, 197-206.

Iran Cement Statistics (2019). Available at: http://www.irancement.com/new_site_12_7_88/ENGLISH/e-statistics.html, accessed at 2019.

Kapur, A. and Keoleian, G.A. (2009). Dynamic modeling of material stocks: A case study of in-use cement stocks in the United States, A book chapter in: Ruth, M., Davidsdottir, B. Changing stocks, Flows and Behaviors in Industrial Ecosystems, Edward Elgar Pub, 40-53.

Kapur, A., Keoleian, G.A., Kendall, A. and Kessler, S.E. (2008). "Dynamic modeling of in-use cement stocks in the United States", Journal of Industrial Ecology, 12(4), 539-556.

Kleijn, R., Huele, R., and Van der Voet, E. (2000). "Dynamic substance flow analysis: The delaying mechanism of stocks with the case of PVC in Sweden", Ecological Economics, 32(2), 241-254.

Miller, S.A. (2020). "The role of cement service-life on the efficient use of resources", Environmental Research Letter, 15, 024004

Müller, D.B., Bader, H.P. and Baccini, P. (2004). "Long-term coordination of timber production and consumption using a dynamic material and energy flow analysis", Journal of Industrial Ecology, 8(3), 65-87.

Müller, D.B. (2006). "Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows, A case study for housing in The Netherlands", Ecological Economics, 59, 142-156.

Namazi, F. and M. Bastami. (2019). "Pathology of underlying problems in cement industry of Iran", Islamic Parliament Research Center of The Islamic Republic of IRAN, Report Serial Number 16305, (in Persian).

Road, Housing and Urban Development Research Center (RHUDRC). (2019). "Comprehensive document on concrete perspective", Available at: https://www.bhrc.ac.ir/Portals/0/PDF-Word/ dastresi/1404.pdf, accessed at 2019, (in Persian).

Sartori, I., Bergsdal, H., Müller, D.B. and Brattebø, H. (2008). "Towards modeling of construction, renovation and demolition activities: Norway’s dwelling stock, 1900-2100", Building Research and Information, 36(5), 412-425.

Surahman, U., Higashi, O. and Kubota, T. (2017). "Evaluation of current material stock and future demolition waste for urban residential buildings in Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia: Embodied energy and CO2 emission analysis", Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, 19, 657-675.

The Global Cement Report™. (2017). 12th  Edition, Available at: https://www.cemnet.com/ Publications/Item/176633/Global-cement-report -12.html.

Wang, Y., Chen, P.C., Ma, H.W., Cheng, K.L. and Chang, C.Y. (2018). "Socio-economic metabolism of urban construction materials: A case study of the Taipei metropolitan area", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 128, 563-571. 

Wiedenhofer, D., Steinberger, J.K., Eisenmenger, N. and Haas, W. (2015). "Maintenance and expansion: Modeling material stocks and flows for residential buildings and transportation networks in the EU25", Journal of Industrial Ecology 19(4), 538-551.

Ahmadi, R. and Karimi, A. (2015). "Statistical analysis of production, consumption and universal trade of the cement  industry of Iran in comparison with the world's main countries", Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies 26(1), 107-128, (in Persian).
Alihosseini A., Abbaszadeh A. and Bastani, D. (2009). "Necessity of revision in energy consumption and the ways to reduce energy consumption in cement industry", Environment, Science and Technology, 16(93), 75-83, (in Persian). 
Askarinejad, A. (2017). "Using different methods of nanofabrication as a new way to activate supplementary cementitious materials, A review", Civil Engineering Infrastructures Journal, 50(1), 1-19.
Bergsdal, H., Brattebø, H., Bohne, R.A. and Müller, D.B. (2007). "Dynamic material flow analysis for Norway's dwelling stock", Building Research and Information, 35(5), 557-570.
Cao, Z., Shen, L., Liu, L., Zhao, J., Zhong, S., Kong, H. and Sun, Y. (2017). "Estimating the in-use cement stock  in China: 1920–2013", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 122, 21-31.
Cao, Z., Shen, L., Zhong, S., Liu, L., Kong, H. and Sun, Y. (2018). "A probabilistic dynamic material flow analysis model for Chinese urban housing stock", Journal of Industrial Ecology, 22, 377-391.
Condeixa, K., Haddad, A. and Boer, D. (2017) "Material flow analysis of the residential building stock at the city of Rio de Janeiro", Journal of Cleaner Production, 149, 1249-1267.
Department of Environment (2017). "Islamic republic of Iran’s third national communication to United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC)", Iran National Climate Change Office, Available at: http://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ Third National communication IRAN.pdf.
Dorafshani, A. (1996). "Studying cement industry of Iran (1968-1994)", M.Sc. Thesis, Shaid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran, (in Persian).
Edwards P. (2017). "The cement sector of Iran", Global Cement Magazine, Pro Global Media,  available at: https://www.globalcement.com/
magazine/articles/1022-the-cement-sector-of-iran.
Eghbali, S., Azizzadeh Araee, R. and Mofrad Boushehri, A. (2019). "Construction Waste Generation in the Iranian Building Industry", Civil Engineering Infrastructures Journal, 52(1), 1-10.
Heibati, F. and Farzin, A. (2005) "The estimation of cement demand in Iran based on time series models", Journal of Economics Research, 5(19), 181-210, (in Persian).
Horvath, A. (2004). "Construction materials and the environment", Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 29, 181-204.
Hu, M., van der Voet, E. and Huppes, G. (2010 b). "Dynamic material flow analysis for strategic construction and demolition waste management in Beijing", Journal of Industrial Ecology 14(3), 440-456.
Hu, M., Pauliuk, S., Wang, T., Huppes, G., van der Voet, E. and Müller, D.B. (2010a). "Iron and steel in Chinese residential buildings: A dynamic analysis", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 54(9), 591-600.
Huang, T., Feng S., Tanikawa, H., Fei, J. and Han, J. (2013). "Materials demand and environmental impact of   buildings construction and demolition in China based on dynamic material flow analysis", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 72, 91-101.
Huang, W., Huang, Y., Lin, S., Chen, Z., Gao, B. and Cui, S. (2018). "Changing urban cement metabolism under  rapid urbanization, A flow and stock perspective", Journal of Cleaner Production, 173, 197-206.
Iran Cement Statistics (2019). Available at: http://www.irancement.com/new_site_12_7_88/ENGLISH/e-statistics.html, accessed at 2019.
Kapur, A. and Keoleian, G.A. (2009). Dynamic modeling of material stocks: A case study of in-use cement stocks in the United States, A book chapter in: Ruth, M., Davidsdottir, B. Changing stocks, Flows and Behaviors in Industrial Ecosystems, Edward Elgar Pub, 40-53.
Kapur, A., Keoleian, G.A., Kendall, A. and Kessler, S.E. (2008). "Dynamic modeling of in-use cement stocks in the United States", Journal of Industrial Ecology, 12(4), 539-556.
Kleijn, R., Huele, R., and Van der Voet, E. (2000). "Dynamic substance flow analysis: The delaying mechanism of stocks with the case of PVC in Sweden", Ecological Economics, 32(2), 241-254.
Miller, S.A. (2020). "The role of cement service-life on the efficient use of resources", Environmental Research Letter, 15, 024004
Müller, D.B., Bader, H.P. and Baccini, P. (2004). "Long-term coordination of timber production and consumption using a dynamic material and energy flow analysis", Journal of Industrial Ecology, 8(3), 65-87.
Müller, D.B. (2006). "Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows, A case study for housing in The Netherlands", Ecological Economics, 59, 142-156.
Namazi, F. and M. Bastami. (2019). "Pathology of underlying problems in cement industry of Iran", Islamic Parliament Research Center of The Islamic Republic of IRAN, Report Serial Number 16305, (in Persian).
Road, Housing and Urban Development Research Center (RHUDRC). (2019). "Comprehensive document on concrete perspective", Available at: https://www.bhrc.ac.ir/Portals/0/PDF-Word/ dastresi/1404.pdf, accessed at 2019, (in Persian).
Sartori, I., Bergsdal, H., Müller, D.B. and Brattebø, H. (2008). "Towards modeling of construction, renovation and demolition activities: Norway’s dwelling stock, 1900-2100", Building Research and Information, 36(5), 412-425.
Surahman, U., Higashi, O. and Kubota, T. (2017). "Evaluation of current material stock and future demolition waste for urban residential buildings in Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia: Embodied energy and CO2 emission analysis", Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, 19, 657-675.
The Global Cement Report™. (2017). 12th  Edition, Available at: https://www.cemnet.com/ Publications/Item/176633/Global-cement-report -12.html.
Wang, Y., Chen, P.C., Ma, H.W., Cheng, K.L. and Chang, C.Y. (2018). "Socio-economic metabolism of urban construction materials: A case study of the Taipei metropolitan area", Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 128, 563-571. 
Wiedenhofer, D., Steinberger, J.K., Eisenmenger, N. and Haas, W. (2015). "Maintenance and expansion: Modeling material stocks and flows for residential buildings and transportation networks in the EU25", Journal of Industrial Ecology 19(4), 538-551.